FINANCIaL
FIELd NOTES
Should You Be Worried About “The Death of the US Dollar?”
One question I’ve been hearing more recently is, “Will the US dollar collapse in the future?” It’s a fair question, given the rising levels of debt in the US and the rise of other alternative currencies (Euro, Yen, and digital currencies as of late).
No fiat currency has lasted forever across history, and I suspect the US dollar will be no exception, given enough time. But how high is the risk that we could face the “death of the dollar” during our lifetime? Let’s take a closer look.
Putting the Recent Market Volatility in Perspective
The stock market has had a rough week. As of Friday afternoon, the S&P 500 was about 6% off its high. Other parts of the stock market were down even more – the Nasdaq tech-heavy stocks were down more than 10%…
Earnings Season Is Mostly a Big Show
The financial media gives stock earnings announcements far too much airtime. Don’t get me wrong—earnings drive stock prices over the long run. Earnings matter. But the hamster wheel of quarterly announcements is mostly just a big show. Public companies spend far too much time ensuring the data is presented to the investing public in the best light possible.
After a decade of watching earnings releases, here are a few things I’ve learned about earnings season…
Is Buying the Biggest Stocks In the S&P 500 a Bad Idea?
The S&P 500 is at some of its highest concentration levels ever. The top 3 stocks make up over 20% of the entire index’s value. That means it’s quite difficult for the market to do well without these companies performing well. Thankfully, they have delivered. Starting in 2016, they even got their own acronym (FAANG—standing for Facebook (META), Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google—since then, Microsoft and others have been added).
Many called it a top in these companies back then, but big tech has continued to carry the market higher. This is one of the rare instances in which investing with the consensus actually worked. They just kept going higher. Despite some hiccups along the way, they all have outperformed the index…
Why The Federal Debt Isn’t Something to Panic Over (Yet)
The high US debt levels have been a popular topic of media attention, especially since the COVID crisis, when rapid stimulus led to rising inflation and a faster-growing debt load for the nation.
While I strongly encourage excessive borrowing in personal finances, I don’t think the nation’s debt load is out of control. For one, the debt relative to the nation’s output (GDP) is relatively stable. Despite an increase over the past few years, the amount the US spends on interest payments is still below the levels of 1980-1990…
How to Invest With Patience
With the stock market reaching all-time highs, some investors may be tempted to wonder when the next meltdown is coming. While the media will print scary headlines, the truth is that nobody knows. While you may have heard investment mantras like “be patient,” it’s an entirely different thing to actually be patient once volatility strikes.
So how can we be more patient? James Clear in Atomic Habits says “disciplines people are better at structuring their lives in a way that does not require heroic willpower and self-control.” Put more simply, they remove temptations…