FINANCIaL
FIELd NOTES
Is a Stock Market Crash Inevitable?
The massive recovery we have experienced over the past 15 years is remarkable and has left many investors wondering when the next drop will happen. It may seem inevitable to you. And if history is any guide, it is inevitable. But that doesn’t make it predictable. Beginning in 1994, valuations looked stretched, and many Wall Street veterans started calling for a correction. We now know this was very premature, and stocks more than tripled before eventually plummeting.
This is the most classic example of the differences between inevitable and predictable. Today’s market is not comparable to the tech bubble, with more reasonable valuations and strong earnings growth. However, valuations look a little expensive compared to their historical averages (21.5x vs. 16.7x average)…
How Your Social Security Claiming Age Influences Asset Allocation
A couple in their mid-60s recently asked me about when the best time would be to take Social Security. After discussing their financial situation along with their family longevity history, we settled on a preliminary plan that involved waiting on Social Security for a few years.
The plan was to lean more heavily on their investments now, and then dial back withdrawals once Social Security begins. Because of this, we made some modest adjustments to their asset allocation to accommodate this…
Maxing Out Your 401(k) Early Might Be Costing You
A new client recently asked me if they should max out their 401(k) early in the year to get the benefit of compounding growth earlier. If the market goes up most years, it makes sense to max out your 401(k) as early as possible so all those dollars can grow throughout the year.
I told them that we needed to take a closer look at their specific 401(k) summary plan description (SPD) – a document that tells you how the plan works and outlines and specific plan rules. One of those rules is how the company matching contribution is calculated. There are two ways that plans typically calculate the matching contributions...
Is the Stock Market Really Efficient?
For those in the financial advising field, one of the more controversial concepts is the “Efficient Market Hypothesis” developed by Eugene Fama in the 1970’s. The idea is that stock prices reflect all available information, so there is no way to consistently “beat the market” when adjusting for risk.
That doesn’t mean you can’t outperform other investors with good behavior by taking more risk when others are fearful and less risk when others are greedy. But it does mean that you are unlikely to outperform the broader market by trying to time the market or pick individual stocks...
The Stock Market and Politics Since 1950
With the 2024 election approaching in November, many significant policy decisions are at stake, from the federal deficit to healthcare, immigration, and more. When I talk with clients during an election year, it’s normal to hear concerns about how the result may impact their portfolio. However, the mood of the conversation tends to be quite biased toward their expectations for the election.
In 2016, when Donald Trump was elected, I had many Democratic clients concerned about how the economy would implode. In 2020, I heard the same concerns from Republican clients when Joe Biden was elected...
Are Fed Rate Cuts Good for Stocks?
During the July Fed meeting, the chair of the Fed, Jerome Powell, said, “If the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly…we are prepared to respond.”
Following that meeting, we had a jump in unemployment that sent the market into an abrupt selloff amid a relatively calm year for markets. The “weakening labor market” that Powell mentioned may very well be here…