FINANCIaL
FIELd NOTES
The Cost of Poorly Timing the Market
One of the most challenging aspects of long-term investing is that years of growth can be wiped out in days or weeks. While every stock market cycle is different, over the past 100 years, it generally has looked something like this -
Small incremental growth followed by a few small waves of panic resulting in declines of 5-10% each year, a few shocks of 20-30% every decade, and a complete meltdown every few decades. It can be tempting to try to avoid the big shocks or meltdowns because the reward for doing so is large. But what if you are wrong and what you think is a meltdown is only a shock, or what you think is a shock is only a small panic? What is the cost?
Go-Go vs. Slow-Go Spending in Retirement
Oftentimes as retirees head into retirement there is some uncertainty about what monthly expenses will be. Pre-retirees may assume their spending will drop, at least to some extent. That may be the case for the average US retiree because they don’t have the income to support their pre-retirement lifestyle. But a retiree who has saved a nice nest egg may want to spend in a similar fashion, if not more.
The data shows that most retirees with $1-$3M in a nest egg spend 100% of their pre-retirement spending until roughly age 75. It then begins to decline by 20-30% until age 85, at which point it may decline by an additional 10% but there may be increased healthcare costs to consider…
Why Average Life Expectancy Is Deceptive
There’s an old financial planning joke about asking a retiree when they would like for us to plan their funeral. It’s a bad joke but the reality is that when we are planning for a lifetime, we do have to make an educated guess on when that life might end.
I often get pushback when I suggest as late as 90 or 95. That pushback is fair given that the average life expectancy is about 77 – 15 to 20 years less than I would typically plan for. But average life expectancy can be deceiving. ..
Tax Reporting for Venmo and Other Transaction Services
Last year the IRS began announcing changes to the tax reporting requirements for transactions on services like Venmo, Paypal, CASH, and others. Their concern was that businesses were not reporting the income that they received on these services.
They were planning to reduce the tax reporting threshold for 2022 goods and services received from $20,000/year to $600/year, which would dramatically increase the number of people subject to the reporting requirements…
How the Media Creates “Experts”
I was recently listening to a podcast hosted by a few advisors who are also popular in financial media. One of them had recently been brought on by several media outlets to talk about one of their predictions for 2023.
As a way of establishing credibility, the media outlets cited one of his 2022 predictions that he got right – the S&P will have its worst year since 2008. Financial news outlets had subject lines that read something to extent of “this analyst who forecasted market downturn in 2022, now says...”
What is the Best Way To Save for Your Grandchildren?
I recently had a client tell me that they had been thinking about saving some money for each of their grandchildren but were unsure about the best way to do that. I’ve seen families over the years put off saving because they weren’t sure exactly how to go about that.
Start by asking yourself what you want the money to accomplish. Is it something specific like college or a first home, or is it more general like setting them up for success early in life?
Here are a few different ideas to consider…