FINANCIaL
FIELd NOTES
Why Even Perfect Market Timing During Recessions Fails
Despite the strong recovery of stocks over the last few weeks, many investors are rightfully concerned that we may be heading into a recession. While there has been progress with trade negotiations, there are still some tariffs already in effect and possibly more on the way. This has let to continued uncertainty and concern of a economic slowdown. I’ve fielded numerous questions regarding when I think the end of the cycle may be. The truth is I don’t know. And even if I did know, there’s not a whole lot an investor can do with that information. If I gave you a crystal ball and you could know the exact day that a recession would begin and end, do you think you could beat the market?
The answer, surprisingly, is “no.” From 1934-2024, the average return of the S&P 500 was 11.5%. If you sold at the start of a recession and bought at the end, you earned 10.4%…
Do Retirees Accurately Assess Their Long-Term Care Risks?
I recently met with a client whose close friend had just lost a parent after a 7+ year battle with dementia. Their friend had spent countless hours personally caring for their parent before hiring care and spending several hundred thousand dollars. It got them thinking about their care later in life and whether we had allocated enough funds for those expenses. I’ve also met with plenty of retirees who don’t have a plan for long-term care and haven’t given it much thought. There can be risks with planning too much or too little. If you fear the worst-case scenario, you’re more likely to underspend in retirement by putting away too much money for a low-probability event. If you don’t plan at all, you could put your spouse, children, or family members in a challenging position later on.
Long-term care (LTC) is a critical component of retirement planning, yet many retirees may not fully grasp the likelihood or implications of requiring such care. A recent study by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College compared individuals' perceptions of their LTC needs with objective assessments…
The Big Estate Planning Oversight in Small Assets
When most people think about estate planning, their minds go straight to wills, trusts, investment accounts, and real estate. Those are the big ticket items—and rightly so. But I’ve now seen multiple clients where seemingly insignificantly small assets end up causing outsized headaches for surviving spouses.
Think about a modest savings account at a local bank. Or a CD opened 15 years ago. Or the car that’s paid off and still registered solely in one spouse’s name. These assets might not make a big impact on a financial plan—but if they’re not titled correctly, they can trigger unexpected probate proceedings, delays, and legal costs after death.
Here’s a few assets to review closely…
Historical Returns After a Stock Market Selloff
Markets are on edge again, this time reacting to a fresh round of tariff headlines and fears of a broader global trade war. Stocks have stumbled into correction territory, with the S&P 500 now down more than 15% from recent highs. For many investors, the question is the same as always: Is this the start of something bigger—or a setup for a rebound?
While every market selloff comes with its own set of headlines and fears, history gives us a clear lens to view what often comes next.
Corrections of this size are unsettling. They create the sense that something is broken. But the data tells a consistent story: sharp declines often lead to strong forward returns. Not immediately, but in time.
Bonds – A Lone Bright Spot
The past week has been one of the most volatile on record. The stock market has been in freefall following the sweeping tariff announcement last Wednesday. Every diversified investor, whether aggressive or conservative, that is exposed to some stock allocation is down. It’s during moments like these that you need diversification to work. And it is.
However, the past few years have been historically bad for bond investors, with rising interest rates resulting in a negative total return over five years…
Repairing an Old Car vs. Buying New
Some common phrases I hear when people buy a new car include variations of: “It was more expensive to repair than to buy new,” or “The repair cost more than the car.”
I’m going to debunk these claims. But before I do, let me say this—if you can afford a new car, go for it! New cars are great. They reduce stress, eliminate hassle, and, for some, bring real enjoyment. But it’s rarely an economical choice.
To be fair, I’m writing this while waiting for our old Toyota Highlander to finish its 100,000-mile service, plus some extra repairs—costing more than $1,300. So, maybe I’m just trying to make myself feel better about the expense…